"They Would Only Bite on This" and Other Anecdotal Bull That Prevents You From Catching More Fish

A buddy and I were ice fishing the other morningignore false anecdotal conclusions. I am not saying
without much luck at first. After about 30 minutescolor does not matter, but the next time you hear
my friend peeked his head in my portable shanty and"they would only bite on yellow", translate that to
said "I changed to orange and BAM... two nice"we tried a few colors but the first fish was caught
crappies instantly. " I could not resist since I had noon yellow and no other color was ever tried after
bites so far. I changed over from a red Whip to anthat". Unfortunately, you really can not learn anything
orange one and within a minute or two, I had a fewfrom this information. Anecdotal evidence is the
11" crappies flopping in the bucket. Then it cooled offopposite of science and is often flat out wrong. For
for a 1/2 hour and then I caught a few more. On...example, fishermen are always talking about
off... on... off until we left. On the drive home Ibarometric pressure, moon phase, lure color on
started thinking that I probably should not havecloudy days. The funny thing is, nobody can agree on
changed colors. The bite was hot-cold-hot-cold typicalhow these things effect fish, not even the experts.
of roaming schools of crappies. Did the school swimSearch the forums and online article and you will find
by us about the same time we changed lures or didthat about 50 percent say fishing when the
they really prefer orange that morning? I will neverbarometer is falling is best and the other half say
know for sure.fishing when the barometer is rising is best. Half say
What makes fishing challenging (and also frustratinguse bright colors on bright days and half say bright
at times when you can not buy a bite) is the numbercolors on dark days. Why such disparity? The reason
of variables that effect the bite. We all rememberis this: someone had a great day fishing and made a
from algebra how hard it was to find x, y, and z. Youmental note of some condition or lure color and
can not solve for z until you know x and y. I hate toattributed it to the reason they caught lots of fish.
put something I love, like fishing, in terms ofYou will never change their opinion about it.
something dreaded like algebra, but the equation aWe are the same way about our pick-up trucks.
fisherman has to solve, to understand fish feedingSome swear by Ford, or Chevy, or Dodge. You
habits, has about 20 variables: and they change byeither had a good experience with one or a bad
the minute! Light, time of day, air temperature, waterexperience with the other two, and nobody is going
temperature, water depth, weed coverage, bottomto change your mind. One has to be statistically more
composition, location, time of year, wind speed, windreliable, but which one? I do not know, but I bet it
direction, water clarity, barometric pressure, forage,has changed since I made up my mind. The point is,
fishing pressure, spawn cycle, fish competitionanecdotal evidence can be wrong. However, statistics
density, and moon phase (if you believe in that), areare only reliable when there are thousands of data
some conditions to consider. The bad news is youpoints. Also, the scientific method requires that only
can not solve this equation. Nobody knows for sureone factor be varied, and the other factors strictly
the complex interaction of all these variable and howcontrolled and kept the same. When out fishing for
they effect and ultimately determine when or wherethe day, numerous factors (remember the 20 factors
a fish will feed, if at all that day. There will be daysmentioned earlier) are changing constantly through
when they should be biting but they just will not. Theout the day.
good news is we do not have to predict when orThere is one method I have used that seems to
where they will bite or even why they bit.eliminate changing conditions and tests only one
We just need to get out and fish, and when wefactor at a time. That method is to present the
have success, try different things, and thensame fish with two bait/lure choices and see which
document as much about the conditions as possible.one is preferred. I call it "side-by-side" testing and it
Never, ever, just remember "this point is a goodeasier to do ice fishing or trolling than it is to do
walleye spot", because 9 times out of 10, ifcasting. When testing new ice fishing plastics I fish
conditions are different, it will not be. It is hard towith two lines down the same hole (Wisconsin allows
remember "on December 20th, in 12' of water, afterthree lines per person) about 5" apart. I use the
3 days of clear skies, the walleyes were feedingsame line and same jig fished at the same depth, but
heavy on this point for about 1 hour before dark" sotwo different color or styles of the same color. After
try to write it down in a log book. Remembering thecatching 30-40 fish this way, a preference may
exact date of success is important, but seasonalbecome apparent. 30 on red and 5 on white is a clear
clues are the most important thing to write down. Apreference.
season can be a week or two ahead or behind,You can use the same technique with tip-ups or
depending on the weather, especially in the spring.tip-downs set one foot apart or trolling with different
The peak of the walleye spring run is not alwayscolors of the same lure at the same depth about 2'
March 23th, for example. But I know for sure theapart. Side-by-side testing also works while bobber
smallmouth bass will be biting in the rivers aroundfishing. Are leaches working better than minnows?
here when the cottony aspen seeds are blowing inFind out by casting two of the exact same bobber
the wind. Pay more attention to the conditions thansetups as close together as possible, one with a
to the brand or color of the lure you happened to beleach and one with a minnow. How about red hooks?
using that day.They are the craze right now but do they
The key to catching more fish is to remember onlyoutperform silver hooks? Try some side-by-side
the things that are really true, and to try our best totesting and let me know the results.