| a Deal or No Deal Fanatic? Do you love to yell at the | | | | case is calculated by the number of high value prizes |
| television offering your advice to the contestant | | | | left divided by the number of total cases left. |
| when he deals with the banker? It is a suspenseful | | | | As an example: during a game of Deal or No Deal, |
| and anxious few moments when the show host calls | | | | there are 9 cases left in play plus the one originally |
| the mysterious banker for the offer to which the | | | | selected by the contestant for a total of 10 cases. |
| contestant must decide to answer 'Deal' or "No deal". | | | | The board has 3 prizes left of $100,000 or more. |
| There are a few general tips you can use to help | | | | Therefore, the probability that the contestant has a |
| you decide what type of armchair advice to offer | | | | case with a prize amount of $100,000 or more is |
| the contestant. When it is early in the game, the | | | | 10%. |
| banker has more leeway and less risk, so he may | | | | To further clarify the example, let's assume the three |
| make more generous offers. But there is actually a | | | | high prize cases contain these amounts: $100,000, |
| financial principal which helps you decide if an offer is | | | | $400,000, and $750,000. Now multiply each of these |
| good or bad. | | | | amounts by the 10% number we obtained earlier and |
| This principal is called 'expected value' and it lets you | | | | add the three sums together for a final tally of |
| assign value to something now even though the | | | | $125,000. |
| future is uncertain. | | | | This is the expected value of the contestant's case. |
| In the instance of Deal or No Deal, the idea is to | | | | So if the banker offers him less than $125,000, you |
| determine what the expected value is of the case | | | | can advise, "No deal!" The show doesn't lose money |
| the contestant selected. | | | | because they rarely offer more than expected value |
| First, you must ascertain the potential gain. The | | | | when large sums are left in play. Plus it is very hard |
| highest amount on the board is the maximum amount | | | | for a contestant to accept $125,000 when there is a |
| the contestant could win. As the game is played out | | | | good chance he could yet win $1 million. |
| and cases get eliminated, this causes the potential | | | | Now you have a few guidelines you can use to assist |
| gain to spiral downward. | | | | you in giving armchair advice to your favorite |
| Next you must determine the probability of the gain. | | | | contestants on the wildly popular TV game show |
| There are 26 cases and spots on the board so the | | | | Deal or No Deal. |
| probability that the contestant has the highest value | | | | |